Israel, Hamas agree ceasefire after more than 15 months of carnage – National & International News – WED 15Jan2024

Israel and Hamas have agreed on the framework for a ceasefire and hostage release. However, there remain many potential pitfalls in the fragile agreement.

Israel, Hamas agree ceasefire after more than 15 months of carnage

The Qatari Prime Minister announced today that Israeli and Hamas negotiators had agreed to a framework for a ceasefire and hostage release deal. The prime minister said that the ceasefire would go into effect on Sunday. 

Since October 7, 2023, over 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, about 70% of them women and children. A recent study from the Lancet suggests that the number of dead may be significantly higher, up to 41% higher than reported between October 2023 and the end of June 2024.

During those 15 months, Israel systematically destroyed pretty much every piece of civilian infrastructure that made life in Gaza sustainable. This includes razing of agricultural fields and facilities, factories, water treatments plants, food production centers, hospitals, etc. Israel also destroyed every one of Gaza’s universities and over 60% of its housing stock.

When the news of the ceasefire broke, there was brief jubilation throughout Gaza. However, the realization soon dawned that the ceasefire was not yet in effect. The next several days are likely to see heavier than usual Israeli bombardment throughout the Strip. The celebrants quickly returned to their tent encampments or wherever they were sheltering as night approached. 

What’s in the deal?

The full text has not yet been released, but it is in essence the same deal that Israeli Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected back in July 2024 (even though it was his own government that had proposed it in May). That deal was in three phases, the first two of which are roughly 45 days each. The first phase calls for a withdrawal of Israeli troops from inhabited areas of Gaza, and the release of some Israeli hostages held by Hamas and other militant groups.

The first group of hostages to be released (33 in all) include women, children, and the elderly and infirm. It is not clear whether all of these will be live hostages or their remains. Dozens of hostages are believed to have died due to Israeli bombardment, while others have died due to a lack of food or medical care. Israel will also release a greater number of Palestinian prisoners, many of whom are known to be children. 

The first phase also calls for a surge of humanitarian aid into Gaza, which is much needed since Israel has been blocking the lion’s share of aid. The deal calls for Israel to allow up to 600 trucks a day, which is nowhere near enough. Before October 7, 2023, about 500 aid trucks were entering daily, and humanitarian groups already thought that number insufficient. Obviously, the needs have since changed and grown dramatically. For example, Gazans will be allowed to return to their homes in the first phase, but many have no homes to return to.

Before the second phase, there will be further negotiations to hammer out a more permanent settlement between Israel and Hamas in consultation with mediating partners, including the US, Egypt, and Qatar. Once this is completed, the remaining living hostages will be released, and Israel will release more Palestinian prisoners. At this stage, all Israeli troops are to withdraw from Gaza’s territory. 

The third phase entails the rebuilding of Gaza, and the details are yet to be hammered out. 

Potential sticking points and pitfalls 

While the world has celebrated news of the deal, several commentators have expressed concerns about its fragility. In particular, some saw potential for Israel to exploit some of the vagueness of the text. Israel insisted there be no written guarantees that they would not resume hostilities at the end of the first phase. Hamas reportedly received verbal guarantees from Qatar, Egypt, and the US that they would continue pressing negotiations until the deal was fully settled. 

Additionally, some fear that Israel may exploit the ambiguity regarding the transition from the first to the second phase to maintain a military occupation in Gaza. In the early 1990s, Israel agreed to the establishment of a Palestinian state upon the completion of a permanent peace settlement. Such a settlement obviously never came about. Israel has exploited the decades long suspension of the peace process, firstly by intensifying its military occupation in the Palestinian territories of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and secondly by expanding its illegal settlements in those areas. 

Netanyahu’s cabinet has not yet ratified the deal. Far right elements of Netanyahu’s coalition government have expressed outrage over the deal and will not back it. They have unambiguously demanded that the war continue, even if it means not getting any more hostages back alive. Far right coalition partners like Bezalael Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have openly called for the seizure of territory in Gaza to allow the illegal Jewish settlements expelled in 2005 to be rebuilt. The Israeli press is reporting that Netanyahu promised Smotrich that the fighting would indeed resume in order to keep his fragile coalition together. 

Israel also has a history of breaking and violating ceasefires. For example, since signing a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon in late November, Israel has violated that truce over 1,000 times with incursions and bombardment. 

Even if all of those hurdles are cleared, the same “day after” question that has loomed throughout the conflict remains: who will govern and rebuild Gaza?