Is Trump about to involve US in Israel’s war on Iran?

Recent comments from President Trump, as well as movements of US military assets, suggest Trump is weighing getting the US directly involved in Israel’s war with Iran.

As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates for a 5^th day, President Trump is telegraphing his appetite to Take direct US military action against Iran. It is always difficult to predict whether Trump is sincere or will make good on his threats. However, his recent comments alongside recent significant Movements of US military assets into the region can only mean one of two things: either Trump and his security cabinet are mounting an extremely elaborate bluff, or Trump is about to commit the US to another disastrous and costly Middle East War.

Today, Trump rejected claims by both British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron that Trump was working for a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Trump retorted that he wanted “an end, a real end” to the conflict, “not a ceasefire”. He also wrote on TruthSocial that he was working on something “much bigger”. He followed up by demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and urging residents of Iran’s capital Tehran (a city of 10 million) to evacuate.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers in both the House and Senate are demanding a vote on whether or not to authorize Trump to involve the US directly in Iran. The prospect has been divisive. Even many prominent voices even within Trump’s own MAGA movement are firmly against the idea, as are Trump’s voters, according to polls.

Economist and market watchers are also saying further escalation could have a devastating impact on the global economy. Since Friday, oil has risen to its highest price per barrel since January.

Why Israel wants the US to strike Iran

Over the weekend, dozens of American aerial refueling tankers took off nearly simultaneously from bases around the US and were apparently bound for Europe. This in itself is a highly unusual movement. Additionally, the US has recalled carrier strike groups from the Asia Pacific region and they are now bound for the Middle East.

In five days of nearly continuous bombing inside of Iran, Israel has targeted several known Iranian nuclear sites. Israeli officials claim that they have already dealt a significant blow to Iran’s nuclear project, but international experts have poured cold water on this claim. Most of the critical infrastructure for Iran’s nuclear program is deep underground and Israel does not possess the means to do serious damage to these facilities without the help of the US military.

For the deepest facilities, such as those underneath mountains, experts say that it would require 30,000-pound bombs, and probably several of them to make successive strikes in the same spot. These bombs can only be delivered using B2 bombers, which the Israelis do not have at their disposal.

Iraq 2.0, or something worse?

There are many obvious and immediate risks to such a strategy. Firstly, repeatedly dropping these huge munitions on sites where nuclear materials are refined and stored would likely spread severe radiological contamination, potentially over thousands of miles depending on the wind. It could also cause atmospheric contamination which could affect the entire world.

Secondly, such a strike would immediately put the 40,000-50,000 US military service members stationed in the region at risk of retaliation from Iran. Although the US has been aiding Israel in intercepting Iran’s ballistic missiles, Iran has so far refrained from carrying out attacks on US military bases. This could quickly change. Not only would they be within reach of Iran’s powerful ballistic missiles, but they would also be at risk of drawing fire from Iran’s numerous proxy militias in the region, all of which have formidable arsenals of their own.

Thirdly, to verify that these strikes were successful in disabling these nuclear sites (and that no other nuclear sites remain functional) would require a massive round invasion. Such an effort would certainly dwarf US troop mobilizations during both the Iraqi and Afghan wars. This would not merely be a repeat of the Iraq war; it would be far worse.

At 169,000 sq mi, Iraq is slightly larger than California. Iran is 636,000 sq mi, just slightly smaller than Alaska, and its terrain is every bit as rugged. In 2003, Iraq’s population was just under 27 million. Iran’s current population is just over 90 million.

At present, US debt accrued for 20 years of war and occupation in Iraq is about $3 trillion.

Trump rejects US intelligence assessment that Iran is nowhere near having a nuke

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that Iran was on the cusp of developing a nuclear weapon, a claim that he has been making since the mid-90s. However, US intelligence assessments disagree. In April, US intelligence assessed that Iran was at least 3 years away from being capable of producing a nuclear weapon. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has issued a fatwa against the development of nuclear weapons, which he has not lifted even now that his country is under attack. In a theocracy like Iran, such a directive holds weight.

When asked about this assessment today, which was signed by his Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, Trump answered, “I don’t care what she said. I think they were very close to having it”.

Israel blocks its citizens from fleeing, including US-Israeli dual nationals

Israel’s government has instructed airlines not to transport Israeli citizens out of the country. This directive also extends to the roughly 700,000 US-Israeli dual nationals residing in Israel. While Israeli officials claim this is to prevent overcrowding at the airport, Israel is simultaneously seeking to return its citizens who are currently abroad. It has been reported, but not independently verified, that US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee got into a “screaming match” with Netanyahu over the latter’s refusal to allow American citizens to depart Israel.

China and other countries have warned their citizens not to travel to Israel. They have also urged those already in Israel to leave immediately via land routes, and some are taking steps to facilitate their departure. While the State Department has issued a “do not travel” advisory for Israel, the US Embassy in Jerusalem announced yesterday that it was “not in a position at this time to evacuate or directly assist Americans in departing Israel”. Now the State Department says it will set up a “task force” to help Americans leave Israel, but haven’t announced any concrete plans.

Meanwhile, wealthy Israelis are finding clandestine routes out of the country, including paying to have themselves and their families ferried to nearby Cyprus on yachts.

“Regime change” and why Israel wants it

Israel’s assault on Iran had less to do with ending Iran’s nuclear program than with Israel’s long-standing ambition for regime change in Iran. If anything, the current conflict has likely only increased Iran’s desire to develop a nuclear deterrent against Israeli and US aggression.

Yesterday, Netanyahu claimed that killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would “end the conflict”. Trump has said he doesn’t support the idea “for now”.

Israel’s goals for Iran include reinstating the son of the Shah of Iran (the oppressive Western puppet overthrown in the late 70s) who is frequently seen in the company of Israeli politicians. This would return control of Iran’s vast resources, including its oil, to the West and by extension Israel. It would also likely interrupt Iran’s increasingly important ties to China and Russia.

If they can’t effect regime change, then Israel wants to ensure that Iran can never rival them as a regional power broker and economic power. Israel has on many occasions, and just recently, sought to thwart any chance of a nuclear deal which would result in lifting crippling sanctions imposed on Iran. If sanctions were lifted and Iran normalized relations with the West, it would unlock Iran’s potential to become a massive trading power in the region – potentially overtaking Israel as a center of innovation in the Middle East. This could potentially lure away Israel’s tech sector, which is Israel’s main industrial base and is also, of course, highly mobile. As Israel becomes more unstable politically, many of those businesses will look to take flight, and some already are.