Ukraine, allies fear being frozen out of Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska - National & International News - TUE 12Aug2025 -

Ukraine, allies fear being sidelined ahead of Trump-Putin meeting on Friday. White House tamps down hopes for a breakthrough.

Ukraine, allies fear being sidelined ahead of Trump-Putin meeting

President Trump is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin this Friday in Alaska, reportedly at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage. Some have regarded the selection of Alaska as a meeting point as symbolic. Alaska is a former Russian territory purchased by the US in 1867, and there remain many Russian-Orthodox Christians in the state to this day. It also places the talks in a point of geographic contact between the US and Russia, and distances them from Ukraine and Europe. Some in Russia are also hopeful it could be a sign of future economic cooperation with the US.

The fact that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was not invited to these talks seems to have cemented the impression that Trump is attempting to solve the Ukraine-Russia crisis above the heads of the Ukrainians.

When asked, Trump told reporters Zelensky “wasn’t a part of it”. He also observed that previous talks with Zelensky had not yielded any breakthroughs. Trump added, “I would say [Zelensky] could go, but he’s gone to a lot of meetings. You know, he’s been there for three and a half years — nothing happened”.

Zelensky issued a statement today underscoring that he would not cede any Ukrainian territory as part of a peace negotiation. Some of Zelensky’s European allies will hold a virtual meeting with Trump and Vice President JD Vance ahead of Trump’s meeting with Putin.

Keeping expectations low

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt attempted to tamp down expectations of a breakthrough by describing Trump’s meeting with Putin as a “listening exercise“. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Trump wanted to meet Putin face-to-face to get a better sense of what it would take to end the war.

Currently, the Russians are advancing in Eastern Ukraine, launching a major push in recent days to strengthen their hand ahead of the meeting. Meanwhile, Ukraine is struggling with a serious manpower problem, underscored by Zelensky’s recent endorsement of a law allowing recruitment of soldiers over the age of 60 for voluntary service.

Adding to the difficulty is the fact that Russia’s sanctions-hit economy is being heavily propped up by defense production. However, growth and production even in this sector seems to be hitting a ceiling and there are signs the economy is tipping over into recession. Nevertheless, it appears that Russia could carry on its war effort for years, even under these constraints. To avoid a collapse, any deal that could provide Putin viable off-ramp to end the war would have to come with immediate sanctions relief, and a promise of closer economic ties with the US would certainly sweeten the deal.

This would still leave the many irreconcilable differences between Russia and Ukraine and its allies, including territorial concessions, Ukraine’s prospects for NATO membership, and Ukraine’s demilitarization.