US military withdraws from Iraq as Pentagon rethinks Middle East presence

On September 30, the Pentagon announced that the US has completed its planned withdrawal from Iraq. The timetable for this withdrawal was set by an agreement between the US and Iraqi governments during the Biden administration. Despite the ongoing war with Iran, the Trump administration has followed through with the withdrawal. If anything, Trump has accelerated the timeline, and the withdrawal has been even more complete than was foreseen in the original agreement. The original agreement allowed for a small US military contingent to remain in the country as advisors, but it seems even those have left. Trump has long been a critic of US involvement in Iraq, and touted today’s announcement of the end of a “very expensive excursion into Hell”.

The US invaded Iraq in 2003 with no mandate from the UN Security Council, which is considered illegal under international law. US forces withdrew in 2011 but returned in 2014 to combat the rise of ISIS. Over more than two decades, the most conservative estimates find that about 200,000 Iraqis died as a direct result of US military action. The number of indirect deaths due to collapsed infrastructure and environmental damage caused by the invasion is impossible to count but is certainly many times higher.

More withdrawals to come?

Although the timeline was set years ago, the withdrawal takes place at an interesting moment when the Pentagon is reconsidering its position in the Middle East as a whole. During the US-Israel war on Iran, US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have sustained significant damage. By March, Iran’s counter offensive had already rendered several bases uninhabitable, forcing troops to relocate to civilian areas.

A Pentagon Inspector General’s report estimated the damage to bases in just four countries (Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and UAE) at around $184 million. An independent estimate taking into account damage to bases throughout the US’s Middle Eastern theater of operations placed the total closer to $5 billion. In either case, the conflict has forced the Pentagon to rethink the sustainability of its Middle Eastern footprint.

About 50,000 American troops remain deployed throughout the region. Continuing large-scale operations will either require an even greater investment to harden US military infrastructure, or a strategic drawdown and redeployment of assets to more secure locations.