Israeli election likely to create political stalemate, little change

Israel has held its first parliamentary (Knesset) elections since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas. Exit polls show that no party has won an outright majority, which is not unusual in the country’s elections. Votes remain to be counted, but projections show a roughly equal number of parliamentary seats (51) for the coalition of parties who support current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the coalition supporting his chief rival Gadi Eisenkot. Arab-led parties are currently projected to win about 18 seats in Israel’s 120-member Knesset, a record showing for the Arab bloc.

Israel Herzog, Israel’s president, will give the heads of the leading parties opportunities to form a governing coalition with other parties. However, there is no guarantee that any party will successfully form a government. In that case, a new round of elections may be necessary. Before the present government was seated in 2022, Israel held five elections in three years due to its increasingly fractious and polarized political landscape.

A crisis on hold

Prior to the Oct. 7 attacks, Israel was already in political crisis. Netanyahu, who was (and still is) facing corruption and bribery charges, was seeking to seize more power over the country’s judiciary. This led to months of near daily protests in which hundreds of thousands of Israelis demanded his ouster. Those political woes for Netanyahu were put on the backburner following the Oct. 7 attacks when Israelis embraced an uncharacteristic national unity.

Netanyahu’s government has never allowed any official investigation into the events that led to Oct. 7 or what led to the military’s failure to react effectively on the day. However, news outlets have now produced ample, credible and well-sourced reporting that Netanyahu had significant foreknowledge of Hamas’s plans to attack within Israel.

Under Netanyahu’s leadership, Israel’s military has committed acts of genocide in Gaza, according to the UN’s top human rights body, various international rights groups (such as Amnesty International), and Israel’s own leading human rights organization B’Tselem. Regardless of international popular and legal opinion, the campaign was and remains very popular among Israelis across the political spectrum.

Israelis are less happy about the loss of international support for Israel that has resulted from Israel’s actions in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iran and elsewhere. Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s chief opponent, has promised to restore that international standing. However, Eisenkot’s own policies towards Palestinians and Israel’s Arab neighbors are every bit as hawkish as Netanyahu’s.

Eisenkot is the originator of the “Dahiya Doctrine,” an Israeli military policy that allows the use of disproportionate force even when it’s likely to cause mass civilian casualties. Eiskenkot’s Doctrine was first deployed in Israel’s 2006 invasion of Lebanon. Israel’s recent campaign of utter destruction in Gaza has been the Doctrine’s most devastating expression, so far.