Chances for peace deal murky after pushback from Ukraine

After reacting with fury to the US peace proposal last week, Ukraine pushes back on key demands. Putin is unlikely to accept their proposed changes.

Last week, the US put forward a new 28-point plan to achieve peace in the war between Ukraine and Russia. In Kyiv, many in President Zelensky’s government saw the proposal as demanding complete capitulation for Ukraine. The plan demanded that Ukraine:

Cede the entire Donbass border region to Russia, including the parts still under Ukrainian military control.
Cede most of the two southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to Russian control. Some parts of those territories are subject to negotiation.
Cut its military in half.
Relinquish long-range weapons which could be used to target Russian territory.
Allow no foreign (i.e.: NATO) troops to be stationed in Ukraine post-agreement .

In exchange, Ukraine would receive unspecified “security guarantees” from the US. Washington would also legally recognize the Crimea and Donbass as Russian territory, but would not require Kyiv to do so.

The plan was put forward at a moment when President Zelensky is particularly vulnerable politically. His former business partner and several members of his government were recently indicted in a $100 million embezzlement scheme.

Ball back in Putin’s court

Officials in both Ukraine and in Europe reacted with fury to the agreement. In the days since, US mediators have met with their Ukrainian counterparts and amended the proposal to make it more palatable for Ukraine.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said yesterday that Ukrainian negotiators had succeed in removing “all issues concerning Europe, including those concerning NATO” from the agreement. It’s possible this refers to the demand that no foreign troops be stationed in Ukraine once the ceasefire is in place.

A Ukrainian official familiar with the talks told CNN that the three crucial sticking points for Ukraine included the demands for territorial concessions, cuts to Ukraine’s military, and demands barring Ukraine’s participation in and cooperation with NATO.

Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is now set to meet with Russian officials again to further discuss amendments to the plan. However, it is unlikely that Putin will give ground on his demand that Ukraine give up its NATO ambitions. Decades of NATO expansion towards Russia have long been a point of contention between Russia and the West, and was one of the key reasons for Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Witkoff reportedly coached Russians on cajoling Trump

The news agency Bloomberg is reporting that the peace plan put forward by the US this week was essentially a Russian plan. If true, this would not be a great surprise. The publicly-known points of this plan closely mirror the demands issued by President Putin at the war’s outset, and even before it began.

Bloomberg also reports that Trump’s special enjoy Steve Witkoff advised his Russian counterparts on how to pitch their plan to Trump. In what is purportedly a leaked transcript of a call between Witkoff and top Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, Witkoff told Ushakov to encourage Putin to flatter Trump, and particularly to extoll Trump’s virtues as a peacemaker.

Responsible Statecraft editorial – Critics of the Ukraine peace deal must answer: what is the alternative?