Iran, Houthis threaten to close key Red Sea waterway amid new US, Saudi strikes

Renewed US-led airstrikes against Iran have already led Tehran to declare the Strait of Hormuz closed. Less than a month after the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran was signed, both signs seem to consider the accord to be at an end, and with it the commitment to restore normal flows of oil and other cargo through the Strait.

The US has also resumed its blockade of Iran’s blockade while Trump has declared that the US will “control” the Strait going forward. Trump has also demanded payment equivalent to 20% of every ship’s cargo in order to reimburse the US for policing the Strait. By contrast, the fees Iran was seeking to charge for safe passage amounted to around 1%. Trump has since backtracked his 20% fee demand after urging from Gulf leaders.

Now, both Iran and their Yemeni allies Ansarallah (commonly known as the Houthis) have threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, effectively cutting off access to the Red Sea from the South. A simultaneous closure of the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb would seriously exacerbate the global energy crisis. The Houthis have previously proven they can effectively close the key maritime corridor. Weeks-long US bombing campaigns have repeatedly failed to diminish the Houthis’ chokehold on Bab el-Mandeb.

Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began at the end of February, the Houthis have largely stayed out of it, but have issued statements in support of Iran and Lebanon. While the Houthis are often described as an Iranian proxy, the Houthis have their own foreign and domestic agendas. It’s unclear why they haven’t threatened to close Bab el-Mandeb in solidarity with Iran until now. However, recent strikes (reportedly by Saudi Arabia) against Yemen’s Sanaa Airport have finally prompted the Houthis to threaten closure of the waterway.

Trump says “other people” will lead ground invasion of Iran

Over the last several months, Trump has repeatedly refused to rule out a US ground invasion of Iran. In fact, he has threatened on various occasions to seize Kharg Island and other key island outposts in the Strait, and has threatened to do so again this week. In the last week, the US has undertaken hundreds of strikes designed to diminish Iran’s military capabilities and their capacity to hit targets in the Strait.

Such an operation would require a significant ground invasion, an idea which both Republicans and Democrats have opposed. In a Fox News interview this week, Trump claimed that “other people” would lead a ground invasion in Iran, but it’s unclear what actors Trump had in mind. In the early days of the war, the US failed to persuade local Kurdish militant groups to take part. They similarly struck out with other minority militants in Iran.

None of the regional powers nor any European allies have expressed any willingness to get involved in a ground offensive. Such an incursion would be risky. It would require thousands of personnel who would be extremely vulnerable to attacks from Iranian missiles and drones.