Iran launches retaliatory missile attack on Israel; sends message but shows restraint – National & International News – SUN 14Apr2024

Iran responds to Israel’s strike on its embassy

Overnight, Iran launched about 200 missiles and drones in a first-of-its-kind direct attack on Israeli soil. US forces, Britain’s Royal Air Force and Jordan took down several dozen projectiles before they ever reached Israeli airspace. Probably fewer than 100 made it to Israeli airspace and most were taken out by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system. However, some made it through and caused some damage to an airport and a Israeli military base in the Negev Desert. As of this writing, there are no confirmed casualties.

Iran launched this attack in retaliation for Israel’s attack on Iran’s embassy in Damascus, Syria, on April 1st, which killed several high-ranking military officials. Israel’s strike of Iran’s consulate was a major violation of the Vienna Convention which protects the diplomatic staff of all countries all over the globe.

When the US, France and the UK blocked a condemnation of the attack in the UN, Ecuadorian authorities stormed the Mexican embassy in Quito, signaling a breakdown in international norms. Iranian authorities have said that if the UN had condemned the attack on their embassy, they would not have felt compelled to respond militarily.

Messages sent

This left Iran in the position of being forced to respond to the outrageous attack on their embassy, asserting their right to do so under Article 51 of the UN Charter. However, they had no desire to give Israel a pretext to escalate the situation further by launching their own attack on Iranian soil. Iran telegraphed for days the timing and nature of its attack, allowing the US and other allies to get assets in place ahead of the attack.

Ultimately, Iran’s response was a show of force, allowing the regime to save face after the assault on its sovereignty. Had Iran launched more projectiles and timed them all to arrive at the same time, it’s likely their attack would have overwhelmed Iron Dome and caused far more damage.

Tehran has now sent a message that they have the capability to reach Israel and cause damage. However, Iran’s UN mission posted on Twitter indicating that their attack is “concluded”, signaling they are content to put a period on this without further reprisal. In a letter addressed to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, Iran warned Israel against retaliating, promising a much harsher response if they chose to do so.

“You got a win. Take the win.”

Shortly after the last missiles were intercepted, President Biden held a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A White House source told Axios that Biden said to Netanyahu, “You got a win. Take the win“. Biden indicated that while the US will continue to help defend Israel, it would not support any attack by Israel on Iran. The White House announced Biden will meet with G7 to discuss a diplomatic response to Iran.

At the time of writing, Netanyahu is meeting with his war cabinet to discuss how to respond. Netanyahu has a vested interest in widening and escalating the war. Widening the war would ward off growing calls for Netanyahu’s resignation in Israel (which would leave him facing bribery charges and possibly a prison sentence). It would draw international scrutiny away from Israel’s conduct in its military campaign in Gaza.

Whatever Biden says, Netanyahu may be betting on Biden backing him up no matter what, as has been the case since Oct. 7. We’ll probably find out later today if Netanyahu will “take the win” and accept Tehran’s invitation to return to his senses.

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