Iran strikes US air bases in Middle East after weekend bombings of nuclear sites

BREAKING: Trump announces ceasefire between Israel and Iran to begin in 12 hours – UPDATE 6:42PM – Iran denies receiving any ceasefire proposal

Iran strikes US air bases in Middle East after weekend bombings of nuclear sites. US says no injuries. Both Trump and Tehran indicate they aren’t seeking further escalation, for now.

Iran claimed responsibility for missile attacks on two major US airbases in the Middle East. This was retaliation for US strikes on three of Iran’s key nuclear sites over the weekend. So far, they have hit Al Udeid airbase in Qatar and the Ain al-Assad airbase in Iraq. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated that the number of missiles they fired equaled the number of bombs the US dropped on their territory this weekend. This likely means that Tehran considers their retaliation against the United States to be concluded, for the time being.

Reports indicate that Tehran informed Qatar in advance before striking Al Udeid, allowing Qatar to close their airspace and ready air defenses. Qatar’s Foreign Minister Dr. Majid bin Mohammed Al-Ansari issued a statement indicating that Qatar considered Iran’s actions a “flagrant violation” of Qatar’s sovereignty. He also said that Qatar reserves the right to “respond directly in a manner equivalent with the nature and scale of this brazen aggression”. Al-Ansari’s statement confirms that Iran’s attack caused “no injuries or human casualties”.

Iran may have chosen Al-Udeid quite carefully in hopes of limiting the US appetite to respond. According to recent reports, the US had quietly removed most of its aircraft from the base, likely anticipating an Iranian response. It’s unknown how many personnel are currently on the base.

The situation at Ain al-Assad airbase is unclear. A Reuters journalist reported that the base’s air defense system was activated.

A short while ago, Trump posted on TruthSocial and claimed that there were no American casualties or injuries from Iran’s strikes today, which he called “very weak”. He also thanked Iran for “giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured”. Trump expressed a hope that Iran would allow “Peace and Harmony” in the region, and said he would “enthusiastically encourage” Israel to do the same. With that, it would appear that neither Washington nor Iran are seeking further military escalation where the other is concerned, at least for now.

Results unclear after US bombing wave on Iran nuclear sites

Around 2:30 AM local time in Iran, US stealth bombers dropped heavy bunker buster bombs (GBU-57) on three major Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. On TruthSocial shortly thereafter, Trump touted a “very successful” attack on the nuclear sites, which he later said were “completely and fully obliterated”.

Before the attack, some experts expressed doubts about the potential efficacy of using GBU-57s to target facilities hundreds of feet underground. These facilities were specifically built to be withstand such attacks. Even now that the dust has settled, doubts remain as to what was accomplished by carrying out these strikes, other than antagonizing Iran. Dr. Jeffrey Lewis of the California-based James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, declared himself “unimpressed” with the US and Israeli strikes on the facilities, which he says, “failed to target significant elements of Iran’s nuclear materials and production infrastructure”.

Earlier today, Trump lashed out on TruthSocial at members of the media who cast doubt on his assertion that the facilities were completely destroyed, chiefly by saying they would have to await a careful assessment. However, even Pentagon officials told The Intercept that Trump’s assessment might he hyperbolic, with one calling it “overblown and premature”.

Simply put, there is no way to verify from the post-strike satellite images available how much damage was done to the underground facilities, or if the strikes even targeted them accurately. It will take considerable time to construct even a reasonably confident assessment through intelligence work.

Another, and perhaps more serious, source of uncertainty concerns the whereabouts of 400kg (880lbs) of uranium enriched to 60%. Powerplants require material enriched to 3-5% while weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90%. Days before the strike, satellite surveillance caught 16 cargo trucks entering the Fordow facility, where most of the highly-enriched uranium is believed to have been kept. Those trucks had left the area before the strikes occurred.

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, called for his inspectors to be readmitted to the sites to assess damage, and especially to account for the 400kgs of highly-enriched uranium.

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