Israel seeks all-out war with Lebanon, potentially dragging in US and other countries – National & International News – WED 19Jun2024

Israel gears up to open second front with Lebanon, potentially dragging in US and other countries.

Kim, Putin sign mutual defense pact in North Korea.

Israel gears up to open second front with Lebanon, potentially dragging in US and other countries

Since Oct. 7, the armed Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah has been exchanging rocket fire with Israel over their shared border. Hezbollah undertook this limited operation, firstly, as a show of solidarity with Hamas in Gaza and, secondly, to draw away some of Israel’s military assets which might otherwise be directed solely in Gaza. These tit-for-tat exchanges have dragged on for months but have so far been kept on a relatively low boil by both sides, even though both fighting forces have incurred heavy losses. Israel’s entire northern border region has been evacuated since hostilities broke out at great expense to the Israeli state. 

The rocket-fire has intensified in recent weeks, and Israel recently killed a high-ranking Hezbollah commander. Apparently in response to this, Hezbollah released footage from one of its surveillance drones which managed to penetrate Israel, eluding their much-vaunted air defenses. The footage shows and highlights many sensitive locations within Israel, most of them near the port of Haifa in the north.

Now, Israel is signaling that it wants to escalate the conflict with an all-out ground offensive in Lebanon. This is something that President Biden and other allies of Israel have repeatedly cautioned them against. Firstly, they project that Israel cannot possibly win with its forces already stretched thin in Gaza and the West Bank. Secondly, there’s a serious danger such an escalation could draw other players into the conflict, including potentially the US itself.

However, from the point of view of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, escalating and expanding the current war is in his political interests, even if it is unlikely to make the average Israeli safer. There are also certain far-right elements in Israel that wish to lay claim to Southern Lebanon to serve an expansionist agenda.

Hezbollah or “The Party of God”

Israel has taken on Hezbollah in the past (most recent major flare-up was in 2006) and has not fared particularly well.  Compared to Hamas, Hezbollah is a much more serious fighting force, far better-trained and well-equipped than any power the Israelis have successfully tangled with in decades. Iran has furnished Hezbollah with an estimated 150,000 rockets, many of which are capable of striking deep within Israel with a high-degree of accuracy. Their soldiers are also more experienced than your average IDF recruit.

Israel still has the edge on Hezbollah in terms of firepower (as long as the US continues sending weapons). However, Hezbollah targets are difficult to strike, many of them being underground or hidden in the mountains. But Israel  The US has not yet commented publicly on its willingness to further embroil itself in a wider conflict. In Israel’s recent confrontation with Iran, the US made it clear it would not join in any Israeli offensives against Iran, but did use its nearby military assets to shoot down more than 80% of the rockets Iran fired at Israel.

Hezbollah’s leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has proven himself to be an able tactician and an adept political player in his nearly 30 years of leadership. Nasrallah has a long-standing relationship with Iran, a working relationship with Bashar al-Assad in Syria and to other militant groups in the region.

In addition to the possibility of drawing in any of these players into an expanded conflict, Nasrallah warned today that the nearby European island country of Cyprus could become a target. Nasrallah warned today that he would consider Cyprus a legitimate target if they allowed Israel to use their bases as a launching pad for direct attacks against Lebanon.

Since October, the US and UK have continually flown missions out of two British airbases on Cyprus to deliver munitions to Israel. It seems from the wording that Nasrallah was referring specifically to Cypriot-owned bases, rather than the two British bases. However, both the US and UK have numerous naval assets in the Eastern Mediterranean which could become embroiled in an expanded war.

More background: https://nemiss.news/opinion-will-biden-send-us-troops-to-die-to-cover-israels-crimes-in-gaza/

Related: UN commission finds Israel has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, including: “the war crimes of starvation as a method of warfare, murder or wilful killing, intentionally directing attacks against civilians and civilian objects, forcible transfer, sexual violence, torture and inhuman or cruel treatment, arbitrary detention and outrages upon personal dignity.”

Kim, Putin sign mutual defense pact in North Korea

Russian President Vladimir Putin has just completed a rare state visit to North Korea where he met with its leader, Kim Jong-Un. This was a follow-up on a trip by Kim to Russia last year, during which Putin gave him a tour of some of their rocket facilities. Putin’s reciprocal visit follows a recent Ukraine “peace summit” in Switzerland, from which Russia was excluded. During this visit, Kim an Putin officially signed a mutual defense pact, promising assistance in the event either country is attacked.

The details of this plan are not fully known. Such a formal mutual assistance pact is already quite a departure from Russia’s previous relations with North Korea, which have long been cordial but distant, at least publicly. However, Western powers, including the US, are concerned that this pact may entail transfers of advanced Russian military tech (nuclear, ballistic missiles, submarines) and hardware to North Korea in exchange for North Korea continuing to provide Russia with ammunition for its war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, it’s unclear how Chinese leader Xi Jinping is viewing the visit and the agreement. China is an ally to both Russia and North Korea. However, Xi has been leery of overly aggressive moves by Kim, including his testing of ballistic missiles. North Korea’s belligerence gives the US a pretext to increase its own military presence in the region, which China sees as a threat. If anything, Xi may be a mediating influence when it comes to Putin’s desires to share military technology with North Korea.

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