Lebanon, Israel agree uneasy truce – National & International News – TUE 26Nov2024

Lebanon, Israel agree uneasy truce.

Trump tariffs: Canada’s Trudeau says will “work with” Trump; Mexico’s Sheinbaum hints retaliatory tariffs.

Lebanon, Israel agree uneasy truce

After weeks of negotiation, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet have agreed to a ceasefire with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah brokered by the US and the French. Despite two months of intense bombing by Israel of Beirut and many other populated and rural centers of Lebanon, as well as an arduous month-long ground invasion, Israel has failed in its initial stated goal of disarming Hezbollah.

However, nearly 4,000 Lebanese have been killed since October 8th of last year, the vast majority in the last two months. Over 1.2 million Lebanese have been displaced and much of the country’s southern border region have been mercilessly bombed.

Hezbollah managed to put up a fierce resistance despite Israel’s bombing campaign and assassination of most of Hezbollah’s leadership. Israel is rarely forthcoming about its military casualties, but estimates are that at least 100 have been killed and 1,000 gravely wounded. Hezbollah also managed to destroy dozens of Israeli tanks and armored vehicles.

These losses have forced Israel’s hand. They have forced the normally intractable Netanyahu to agreed to the ceasefire, which has proven to be unpopular in Israel.

What’s in the agreement?

The full terms of the ceasefire are not public, but it appears that both sides, Hezbollah and Israel, have been given 60 days to withdraw fully from Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah will have to withdraw its forces region between the border and the Litani River, which is about the lower sixth of Lebanon.

Contrary to Netanyahu’s public statement, the agreement does not give Israel carte blanche to resume its aggression in Lebanon at will. Instead, UN peacekeeping forces, bolstered by Lebanese and French troops, and US “technical military advisors” will be in place to enforce the agreement. If Israel detects “suspicious movement” in the area, it will be up to the Lebanese forces to deal with it. If they do not, then Israel may use this as a justification to break the ceasefire.

The agreement does not touch on Israel’s ongoing military assault on Gaza. Hezbollah first injured the war on October 8th of last year to draw some of Israel’s military assets away from the Gaza Strip. President Joe Biden has said he will make “one more push” for a peace agreement for Gaza before leaving office. Envoys remain in the Middle East hoping to use the momentum from this agreement to procure a ceasefire in Gaza. However, these efforts have failed repeatedly.

It is also by no means certain that the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel will prevent a wider Middle East war. During Netanyahu’s speech, he justified the agreement saying that it would give Israel’s troops time to rest up, and rearm so that they could focus on Iran, Iraq, and Syria.

Trump tariffs: Canada’s Trudeau says he will “work with” Trump; Mexico’s Sheinbaum hints retaliatory tariffs.

Yesterday, president-elect Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on products coming from Canada and Mexico on day one of his presidency. This, he said, was to spur the two countries to take action to prevent the flow of people and drugs, particularly fentanyl, over their borders into the United States.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded saying that he would “work with” Trump to hammer out some sort of agreement to avoid or reduce the tariffs. Tariffs would be immensely harmful to both the US and Canada, as our two economies are intensely interdependent.

Over 75% of Canada’s exports come to the United States, including oil, minerals, car parts, lumber and other building materials, and other manufactured goods. Canada is also one of the United States’ most important export markets. If Trudeau and Trump cannot come to some understanding, some Canadian officials have floated the possibility of imposing limited tariffs of their own.

Mexico’s newly-sworn in President Claudia Sheinbaum was not as conciliatory. In a letter to Trump what she read aloud at a press conference, shine bomb said, “One tariff will follow another in response and so on, until we put our common businesses at risk”. This implies that she would readily consider imposing tariffs of her own in retaliation.

Mexico is the US’ top trading partner, accounting for 15.8% of trade. Any disruption would be particularly painful for American consumers. “What sense is there?” Sheinbaum wrote.

Turnabout

Sheinbaum noted that immigration from Mexico into the US was already down, and that there was little that could be done about fentanyl traffic because that is down to US demand. She also pointed out how the flow of US-made guns into Mexico empowered the gangs that produce and transport fentanyl.

“We do not produce weapons, we do not consume synthetic drugs. Unfortunately what we do have is the people who are being killed by the crime that is responding to the demand in your country,” Sheinbaum wrote, referring to the US.

Nevertheless, Sheinbaum said she would seek a call with Trump and communicate with Prime Minister Trudeau.

Deputy Economy Minister Louis Rosendo Gutierrez characterized Trump’s tariff threat as a negotiation ploy. “It’s [Trump’s] way of doing things. First, he takes a really strong position, but then he sits down to negotiate. If he had just wanted to hike [tariffs], he would have just done it on [Jan.] 20. He wouldn’t have let us know in advance”.

Additionally, Trump’s threat has also given him an opportunity to flex his foreign policy muscle and steer American policy before he even takes office.