No end in sight after Trump ignites new Middle East war with Iran strikes

The US-Israeli war on Iran officially commenced on Saturday morning with strikes on the Tehran compound of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at around 9:45 a.m. local time. Khamenei was confirmed killed about 12 hours later.

Since then, at least 550 Iranians have been killed, according to the Iranian Red Crescent. This includes a strike in southern Iran on Saturday which killed 168 students, parents and teachers at an all-girls primary school.

On Sunday, 6 US service members were killed by an Iranian strike on a makeshift base in Kuwait. Another 18 service members have been seriously injured across the region. Following the first reported US military deaths, President Trump said “we expect casualties“.

Already a regional war

In less than 72 hours, the war has already spread to several fronts in the region. The Hezbollah militia in Lebanon has joined Iran in carrying out retaliatory strikes against US and Israeli targets. Following the death of Khamenei, Iran and Hezbollah have struck strategic targets (mostly US and Israeli military assets) in several countries, including: Israel, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan.

Just this morning, Cyprus was added to the list. Retaliatory strikes by either Iran or Hezbollah struck Royal Air Force base Akrotiri, which lies within British sovereign territory on the island of Cyprus. The base has been used for reconnaissance flights over Gaza to aid Israel’s years-long bombing campaign, as well as a stopping off point for US military aircraft headed for Middle East bases.

After today’s strike, the British government has reversed its position and will allow the US to use its bases to strike Iran, including the massive Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean. Previously, the British government had ruled out allowing the US to use these bases out of concern that the strikes on Iran may violate international law.

Where/when does it end?

The Trump administration has sent conflicting messages about their timeline for these strikes and what they hope to achieve. In one statement, Trump said the operation would take place over 4-5 weeks before saying it could go on for “far longer”. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on the other hand said that this would not be “an endless war”. Administration officials have also contradicted one another when it comes to the goals of the campaign. Some say regime change in Iran is an objective and others say it’s not. Some have outlined more limited strategic goals, such as dismantling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capacity.

The fact that the first strikes were aimed at Iran’s highest levels of government indicates that regime change is an objective. However, no administration official has articulated what sort of regime they hope will replace the current one, or how this will be achieved. Trump seems to be banking on the Iranians themselves rising up and taking over their government, but it’s not clear how he expects them to do this. It’s equally unclear whether Iranians will support an overthrow of their government backed by the US military, even though they have been protesting it for months.

A generous reading would be that the conflicting messages and objectives are a form of strategic ambiguity. A less generous reading would be that the Trump administration is struggling to find a message that will shore up domestic support for a new Middle East war with unclear strategic outcomes that has deeply divided conservative media and the MAGA base itself. Establishment-friendly conservatives have largely supported the Iran strikes, but influential MAGA commentators see this war as a betrayal of the “America First” principles Trump campaigned on.