Protect yourself out there: Covid-19 weekly summary

The only way for the public to know what is going on in Mississippi is to depend upon the statistics coming from the MS Department of Health.  State stats are reported to the CDC and disseminated to other tracking programs, as well. Tracking this information is made somewhat more difficult by delays in reporting, changes due to new information, changing tracking parameters and some generalized confusion.

For instance, calling a phone number connected to Union County Health and Rehab Sunday, May 25, elicited the information (from the facility administrator, Stacy Montgomery) that there are currently 36 cases at the facility. Yet, today’s MSDH report lists only one Union County long term care  (LTC) facility with an outbreak, said to total 20 cases. The MSDH’s daily report defines and outbreak as : “Even one case of COVID-19 in these facilities among residents or employees is considered an outbreak.”

So, the question arises: Are these statistics reliable, or not?

5-18-2020 to 5-25-2020:

As expected, raw numbers of new cases and deaths continue to climb statewide. The percentage of increase in new cases has remained steady this week at 18% for the second straight week. However the statewide percentage rise in new deaths rose from 21% to 32%.

• STATEWIDE MISSISSIPPI
  • With 213 deaths per million population, MS is currently the 14 highest state in the US. The US average is 302.
  • MS statewide cases increased by 2026, an increase of 18%, the same percentage as the previous week. So, stable for now.
  • MS statewide deaths increased by 167, a 32% increase, up considerably from the previous week’s 21% rise. Therefore, rising.
  • Hospitalizations began the week at 441 and ended at 421, with a high of 462. This is all generally higher than the previous week. Statistics for 5-23 are incomplete, for some reason.
  • ICU patients numbers began the week at 153 and ended at 152, somewhat lower than the week before.
  • Patients on ventilators averaged about 10% higher than the week before, varying daily from 84 to 93. Again, May statistics were incomplete.
• NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI (NEMS)
  • NEMS new cases were 128, an increase of 12%, compared to 13% the previous week. So, statistically stable.
  • NEMS had 4 new deaths during this week, bringing the regional total to 84. All of the new deaths were in LTC facilities. This is only a 5% increase over the previous week.
• LONG TERM CARE FACILITIES
  • Statewide, as of 5-24-20 figures, LTC facilities accounted for 13% of cases and 51% of deaths.
  • In NEMS, LTC facilities have 24% of the regions total cases (282 of 1181) and 57% of total deaths, 48 of 84.

The take-away for this week:

The main take-away is that the public needs clear, concise, dependable information from those in charge of providing that information. Otherwise, it is anyone’s guess as to the truth of any situation, producing fertile ground for the growth of rumors and conspiracy theories.

Long term care facilities in Mississippi continue to struggle with Covid-19. The number of facilities with outbreaks grew from 98 to 118 this week. (An outbreak is defined as one case in a facility-either patient or staff.) LTC facilities are being pinpointed for special emphasis, though their cases are only 13% of total positives in the state. They account for 51% of deaths, not surprising considering the age and  general health of their residents.

Remember that there is about a two week incubation period from exposure to symptoms, during which the disease can be spread.  Government officials have basically reopened Mississippi, along with the requisite listings of necessary precautions.  However, traveling the area shows that there is little being done to enforce the precautions.

One last statistic: in tracking the outcome of worldwide Covid-19 cases that required treatment (and have been closed), 82% recovered, 13% died. In the US, only 82% have recovered, 18% are dead.  That’s a  38% higher death rate of treated cases in the United States over worldwide outcomes. Question is: can anybody’s statistics be believed?

Take charge of your own safety.

Weekly Covid-19 trending*: National, Mississippi, NE Miss.

*All state data is from MS State Department of Health and is as of 6 PM on the day prior to reporting. National data is from World-O-Meter and is current as of date of our report.

Click PDF and rotate image::  Covid-19  March 30 – May 11