Signs, sources indicate plans for US strike on Iran already in motion

Signs, sources indicate plans for US strike on Iran already in motion.

Palestinian student activist Mahmoud Khalil released after months in ICE detention.

On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump had approved a US attack plan on Iran, but had not yet given the final order. On Thursday, Trump denied this report, saying that he had made no such decision. Trump indicated that he would make a decision “within two weeks” to give diplomacy a chance. However, there are several indicators that not only has a decision been made, but that wheels are already in motion to carry it out.

Veteran journalist Seymour Hersh reported this week, citing American and Israeli sources he considers reliable, that a direct US strike on Iran could come as early as this weekend. Bloomberg is reporting that US officials are preparing for a strike “in the coming days” Hersh’s sources indicate that Trump is more likely to strike on a weekend (if not this weekend, then another) in order to minimize disruption to the stock market.

At the same time, social media accounts monitoring open source intel have tracked the movements of US military aircraft which are apparently moving to staging posts in the region. These aircraft are often used to fuel US stealth bombers which are capable of delivering the massive ordinance necessary to penetrate the hundreds of meters of sold rock under which Iran’s key nuclear facilities are located.

MIT physicist Prof. Theodore Postol, an expert in nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, says that even heavy bunker buster munitions the US would use will be unlikely to be effective in neutralizing Iran’s underground facilities. US officials also say they have not ruled out deploying a “tactical” nuclear weapon against Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.

Trump has continued to dismiss the assessments of his own intelligence services that Iran is not moving to create a nuclear bomb. After multiple public rebukes from President Trump, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard back-tracked today on her own agencies’ assessment that Iran was possibly years away from a nuclear bomb, now claiming it was only weeks away. Notably, she did not alter the assessment that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon at this time.

Any off-ramps left?

There are some windows of opportunity to prevent further escalation, but they are small and getting smaller all the time.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met today with some of his European counterparts in what appeared to be a last-ditch attempt at diplomacy. However, Aragchi said Tehran refuses to negotiate further with the US about its nuclear program while Israel continues bombing his country. Since Israel and Iran are continuing to exchange fire, such a prospect seems remote.

Aragchi also indicated that his government’s trust in the US has been broken by Israel’s actions, and that it was up to the Trump administration “to show their determination for going for a negotiated solution”. He also suggested that Washington may have used its negotiations to provide “cover” for Israel to plan and carry out its unprovoked assault on Iran last week.

A longtime Washington operative told Seymour Hersh that “all will be ‘under control’ if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ‘departs’,” though it’s unclear whether that means by assassination or fleeing the country. In either event, Hersh noted that there seems to be little consideration among US officials as to what comes next.

Why does Israel want US to strike Iran and what is likely to happen next?

US economy facing a war shock.

Palestinian student activist Mahmoud Khalil released after months in ICE detention

On March 8, plainclothes ICE agents arrested Palestinian student activist Mahmoud Khalil at his housing complex on the Columbia University campus. Khalil is married to an American citizen and is a green card holder. The State Department and Department of Homeland Security admitted targeting Khalil solely for his involvement in last year’s pro-Palestine protests on the Columbia campus.

While some of the students involved in that protest and encampment were later arrested on charges of trespass or vandalism, Khalil himself has never been charged with or even accused of any crime. Secretary of State Marco Rubio later asserted that he had the authority to revoke Khalil’s US residency status solely based on the claim that Khalil’s presence in the United States was detrimental to US foreign policy. New Jersey-based federal judge Michael Fabiarz later rejected Rubio’s assertion.

Khalil was the first, but not the last, foreign-born student to be detained by ICE solely for their statements in support of Palestine. The others have either all long since been released or agreed to deportation. During Khalil’s over three months of incarceration, his wife gave birth to the couple’s first child, a son named Deen.

This afternoon, Khalil was released from the ICE detention facility in Jena, LA, where he had been held. Judge Farbiarz ordered Khalil’s release this morning, saying that Khalil was not a flight risk, and “not a danger to the community. Period, full stop”.

Upon his release, Khalil spoke to reporters in support of the hundreds of other men held at the facility, and denounced the Trump administration’s efforts to dehumanize migrants.