Is it too early for business as usual in Mississippi?

Nineteen days after Governor Tate Reeves’ “Safer at Home” order became public, it appears that much of Northeast Mississippi believes “Business as Usual” is the executive order in effect. Parking lots are jammed, few masks are being used (even fewer are being used correctly) and many folks are paying no heed to social distancing precautions.

Statewide statistical ambiguity

On March 24, a Mississippi Executive order by Governor Tate Reeves declared a state of emergency and closed schools. Two days later another Executive Order suspended dining in restaurants, etc. On April 1 Reeves ordered “Shelter in Place” through 4-20. On April 17, that order was extended until 4-27.

On April 19 the state’s new deaths hit a high of 300, then dropped down. Some thought Mississippi had peaked. (The peak is the day with the most new cases, which is followed by a decline in new cases.)

On 4-24 the “Safer at Home” order that would begin reopening the economy was announced by Reeves, to be in effect from April 27-May 11. Not all businesses were allowed to open and there were specific precautions prescribed for those that did.

On May 4 and 5, new cases jumped to 327 and 330, respectively. This was about one week after the Safer at Home order took effect, so not likely connected.  Again, some thought this was Mississippi’s peak.

Also on May 4, Reeves further loosened Safer at Home restraints. Restaurants were allowed dine-in customers, parks, pools, etc were reopened – all with precautionary measures specified.

Then, on May 8, two weeks after Safer at Home, new cases hit another all-time high of 404. Since then, new cases have stayed below 404, but have not gone steadily downward.  Maybe this was Mississippi’s peak – or maybe not. It depends upon behavior.

What about Northeast Mississippi?

Nursing homes account for 27% of NE Mississippi cases and about 54% of deaths. The rest of the cases are out in the communities, or have been. On a positive note, Northeast Mississippi’s average percentage of increase in new cases and in new deaths are currently below statewide averages.

However, some NE Miss counties, like Clay and Union counties, for instance, are now experiencing steep upward trends in new cases and deaths. Though “raw” numbers are relatively low, their percentage of increase is climbing weekly. This is the classical coronavirus spike pattern. Right here, in the middle of “Safer at Home.”

Clay has no nursing home cases or deaths. Three of the four current total Union County deaths are nursing home related;  however, less than 28% of its total cases are in nursing homes. All that is known about the other 72% is that they are not confined to nursing homes. They could be most anywhere.

For more information on why precautions are necessary: The virus is not gone.

Why each person’s compliance is important in a pandemic: What’s coming?