US struggling to contain Iran escalation

With the US-Israeli war on Iran soon to enter its second week, the conflict shows no signs of ending or even slowing down, despite statements from President Trump. Trump has said on several occasions this week that the US has achieved most of its objectives “ahead of schedule”, without defining what the objectives were or what had been achieved. His attempts to calm jittery markets and keep a lid on skyrocketing oil prices are no longer having the desired effect. Markets closed down sharply today and oil prices per barrel ended the day 9% higher than yesterday.

In answer for American and Israeli attacks on its territory and people, Iran has promised immense global economic pain. Their main means of bringing pain is their ability to cut off a huge part of the world’s oil supply. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz for days, halting maritime shipments which normally carry 20% of global supply.

Moreover, the oil fields and processing facilities in neighboring Gulf countries are within easy reach of Iran’s drones and missiles. A single well-aimed missile could do billions of dollars’ worth of damage and put the facility out of commission for months. Recent Israeli attacks on Iranian oil fields reportedly angered American officials, who feared this would prompt Iran to take similar action against its neighbors. Iran has not directly attacked oil facilities yet, but has severely damaged related infrastructure as well as targeting cargo ships in the Persian Gulf.

Iranian regime proves resilient

Despite days of relentless US and Israeli bombing and repeated declarations of success on all military fronts, there are no indications that Iran’s ability to fight back has been significantly diminished. US intelligence has found no evidence that the attacks have weakened the Iranian government’s grip on power. No sign of the “popular takeover” of Iran’s government Trump has materialized. In fact, the regime’s political position has been strengthened as Iranians rally around the government they were energetically protesting just a few weeks ago.

Trump has repeatedly signaled this week that he would like to bring the war to a swift conclusion. His desire is likely driven both by the market upheaval and a quickly dwindling supply of interceptor rockets and other munitions.

Additionally, the conflict may potentially push the US’s Gulf allies to reconsider their defense partnerships with the US going forward. The UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia currently host US military bases which Iran is targeting. The Gulf states agreed to this arrangement on the understanding that Washington would protect them in the event the Iranians struck them. However, Gulf officials have expressed frustration that the US has prioritized protecting Israel over protecting Gulf partners.

Iran, on the other hand, has signaled a growing will to fight what it considers an existential war. Unlike previous engagements in recent years, Iran currently has no incentive to end hostilities without having re-established a credible deterrence against future aggression from Israel and the US. They know that Washington has limited tools to blunt the immense economic impacts of the war. The Iranians have publicly refused to reopen talks with the US, seeing no point in reviving talks that were underway when Trump decided to strike.

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