When will life be normal? Covid weekly trends 4May20

Predictions by public health experts about when the coronavirus pandemic would peak in Mississippi have proven wrong. It was most recently estimated that the pandemic would peak in Mississippi last week. However, new cases and deaths late last week show that the peak may still lie somewhere in the future.

On April 17, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington stated that COVID-19 deaths had actually peaked in the U.S. on April 15 and that hospital-resource use peaked on April 14.

However, just as the country began easing restrictions on nonessential business, the United States saw its deadliest single day yet in the coronavirus pandemic. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), data collected as of 4 AM ET Friday May 1, showed that 2,909 people in the US died of Covid-19 in 24 hours. On that same day, Mississippi reported its highest numbers for new virus cases and new deaths.

What is a virus peak? Has coronavirus peaked in Mississippi?

According to Mark Lurie, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Brown University School of Public Health, “The peak is the day on which there are the highest number of (new) cases, after which the number of cases will start to decline. By definition, 50 percent of cases will occur after the peak.”

When estimating the coronavirus’s peak, the process is complicated by the pathogen’s long incubation period. Predictions often change as new data become available. For example:

• On April 8th, the IHME prediction for Mississippi was for a peak date of April 21st and a projected 307 deaths by August 4th, 2020. April 21st had 178 new cases, the following day, 259.
• Based on new data, scientists at IMHE then estimated a Mississippi peak on Tuesday, April 28. They raised the prediction of deaths by early August to around 421 coronavirus-related deaths.
• April 28th saw Mississippi with 227 new virus cases, but new cases did not trend downward.
• May 1 brought 397 new positive cases and 20 deaths. This remains the highest reports to date, but no downward trending can yet be claimed.

They were wrong again.

Is it safe to begin resuming normal activities?

Protesters in dozens of states continue to demand the reopening of the economy. The economic pressure to reopen businesses is an undisputed fact. What the virus may do, both short-term and long-term is, at this point, only a prediction.

The lengthy incubation time of coronavirus makes predicting and quantifying the impact of both tightening, loosening interventions difficult. Additionally, the public’s degree of adherence to guidelines varies greatly. Infections detected today are the result of exposures that occurred 10 to 14 days ago. The impact of intervention changes would not likely be seen for at least two weeks after they have been implemented.

For the public health model response, the IHME estimates that social distancing measures can be relaxed based when infections drop to 1 per 1 million people. That would equate to less than 330 cases nationwide. Even after the infection rate drops to this level, the IHME says it would only be possible to relax social distancing measures if widespread testing, contact tracing, isolation and limitations on mass gathering are in place.

When considering the push by national and state governments to relax interventions and kick start the economy, public health officials cautioned against moving too quickly. They suggested that there should first be at least two weeks of downward trending of new cases.

As of today, Mississippi infections stand at 104 cases per million, and no peak or sustained downward trending of cases has been shown. Of the 4 states immediately surrounding MS, only Louisiana has more cases per million (443) than MS.

As a results of Mississippi having its highest to date number of new cases and new deaths on May 1, Governor Reeves held back on his plans to further loosen restrictions on businesses. This leaves nonessential business closed for the time being, and social distancing requirements in place for those essential businesses allowed to open.

However, the “reopening” horse has left the gate. Therefore, health officials have stressed the continued importance of wearing a mask in public spaces and adhering to all currently recommended social-distancing mandates.

In other words, you’re pretty much on your own in deciding what is safe for you and your family right now.

When will things return to normal?

Researchers from Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health used computer models to simulate how COVID-19 could spread over the next five years.

Researchers found that, based on simulations of the coronavirus outbreak’s future course, prolonged or intermittent social distancing — such as stay-at-home orders and school closures — may be necessary over the next few years.

According to their report, “Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available.”

Northeast Mississippi trends

Northeast MS outpaced the state in percentage of increase of deaths the past week, 44% to 35%. There were 18 new deaths in 7 counties.  Of the 59 total deaths of Covid-19  in the Northeast Mississippi region, 29 (49%) of those deaths were in nursing home/long term care (LTC) facilities. All deaths so far reported in Calhoun and Prentiss counties have been these facilities.  In Chickasaw (6 of 8 deaths) and Monroe (14 of 16 deaths) are in nursing home/ LTC facilities.

Weekly Covid-19 trending*: National, Mississippi, NE Miss.

• All state data is from MS State Department of Health and is as of 6 PM on the day prior to reporting National data is from World-O-Meter and is current as of date of our report.

For PDF view of Table: Covid-19 Weekly summary