Uncertainty looms as Iran-US ceasefire nears its end

The temporary ceasefire between Iran and the US is set to end on Wednesday. After a fraught two weeks, both Washington and Tehran are sending mixed signals on their willingness to extend the ceasefire or continue peace negotiations. Trump earlier today said it was “highly unlikely” he would extend the ceasefire if a deal is not reached in scheduled talks on Wednesday. Then in an apparent attempt to calm markets, Trump posted on Truth Social that he believed a deal would happen “relatively quickly”.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Iran has no plans for a second round of talks with the US. Beghaei cited repeated violations of the ceasefire by the US and Israel as well as “unserious” and “unrealistic” demands by the US. Later in the day, an unnamed Iranian official said they were “positively reviewing” participation in the talks.

The ceasefire that wasn’t

Events in the last week have been complex and fast moving. After the ceasefire was announced, Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz while charging a toll for some ships. Iran then restricted some ships in response to Israel’s continued violation of the ceasefire in Lebanon.

Last Monday, Trump imposed a US naval blockade on Iran. The move, which came after Iran had already largely reopened the Strait, frustrated many US allies who were already experiencing an energy crisis. It created a confusing situation where Iran was allowing commercial traffic through on condition they paid a toll, while the US was targeting any ships that paid the toll.

On Friday, Iran announced it would completely reopen the Strait after Israel and Lebanon signed a 10-day truce. The following day, Iran closed the Strait once again.

To date, the US says it has intercepted nearly two dozen ships that had entered Iranian ports. This morning, the US fired on and seized an inbound Iran-linked cargo ship, the M/V Touska.

Iranian officials say if Trump resumes fighting, they will cut off all diplomatic channels and impose “significantly greater costs” on US interests.

Oil prices rise on fears of ceasefire collapse.

Images of an Israeli soldier desecrating a Jesus statue in southern Lebanon draws condemnation.

Navy denies media reports of poor food and food shortages on ships in Middle East.

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