Trump pauses scheme to escort Hormuz ships after Iran strikes back

Over the weekend, the Trump administration announced “Project Freedom”, an effort by the Pentagon and CENTCOM to guide commercial ships, particularly tankers, through the Strait of Hormuz. The idea was to map out a path for these ships to follow the Strait while avoiding both the Iranian tolls and potential Iranian underwater mines. In over 24 hours of operations, only two US-flagged merchant vessels are confirmed to have passed through the Strait. Other ships were more reluctant to attempt to run through the Iranian blockade, fearing that their ships could be targeted with drones or missiles.

Iran responded to Project Freedom on Monday with a fierce assault on the United Arab Emirates. This time, Iran launched numerous missiles and drones at the only Emirati oil transport hub capable of exporting oil while avoiding Hormuz. Reporting from the UAE is tightly controlled but the damage from yesterday’s attack is believed to be extensive. The UAE’s air defenses intercepted more Iranian drones and missiles on Tuesday.

This evening, Trump announced he was pausing “Project Freedom”, claiming progress in peace talks with Iran. It is unclear what if any talks are actually taking place, but Pakistan continues relaying messages between Tehran and Washington.

Trump seeks an off-ramp

White House and Pentagon officials have consistently downplayed Iranian attacks that have taken place throughout the ceasefire. On Monday, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth also said that the ceasefire remains in effect despite the fierce Iranian attack on the UAE. Joint Chiefs chair Gen. Dan Caine said Tuesday that Iran has attacked US Navy vessels “more than 10 times” during the ceasefire. However, Caine insisted these attacks were “below the threshold of restarting major combat operations”.

The rapidly changing strategies and tendency to brush off attacks by Iran seem in line with Trump’s reported reluctance to return to a full scale shooting war, or to escalate to a boots-on-the-ground strategy. Sources report that Trump is worried about taking any action that could produce unacceptably high US military casualties and as well as prolong a conflict that has already had serious political and economic repercussions.

However, Trump is so far not willing to entertain Tehran’s proposed compromises for a permanent end to the war. “Project Freedom” appears to have been an attempt to bring more pressure on Iran to offer more favorable (or politically acceptable) terms. Instead, Iran launched massive attacks on the UAE two days in a row. Tehran has not yet responded to Trump’s current claims of “great progress” in peace talks which he says prompted him to pause “Project Freedom”.