Trump says he has "ended the war". Iran isn't so sure. - National & International News -

Trump says he has “ended the war”. Iran isn’t so sure.

This morning, President Trump was threatening to hit Iran “very hard” and declared the US military would seize Iran’s key oil hub Kharg Island and other sites of oil production infrastructure. By midday, he announced those strikes were canceled and once again said that a peace deal with Iran would be signed in the next few days. Now just a short while ago, Trump proclaimed that he had “ended the war with Iran” and that a new peace deal could be signed in Europe as early as this weekend, and that all this was thanks to his latest strikes and threats.

Trump’s threats and pronouncements today were met with some confusion in Tehran. Iranian officials have not confirmed any peace deal had been finalized. Even throughout the recent flare-up, talks with Qatari mediators were ongoing in Tehran. Anonymous US sources have cited “breakthroughs” in negotiations but there are no hints as to what these breakthroughs pertain to.

What’s new?

Trump said the war was over due to Iran finally agreeing “never to have a nuclear weapon, something that we insisted on; that was the whole purpose. That was 95 percent of it”. However, Trump said over a week ago that they had already agreed to this. In fact, Iran had long ago conceded on this point during previous talks with the US and other international mediators. On February 27, an Omani negotiator revealed that Iran had agreed to “zero stockpiling” of highly enriched nuclear material, which would have in effect made it impossible for them to create a nuclear bomb. The US and Israel launched their war on Iran the very next day.

Given these facts, it’s not clear what has changed in negotiations on this point. Nor is it clear why Trump believes an agreement is more achievable now that it was less than 24 hours ago or even a week ago.

One possible explanation comes from Jeremy Scahill of DropSite News. Citing an Iranian official, Scahill reports that a framework for a US-Iranian memorandum of understanding was largely finalized weeks ago at the end of May. At that time, the source says that Trump introduced new demands which the source said were “outside the framework of negotiations” but did not describe in detail. According to the official, this intervention by Trump “disrupted” negotiations and delayed finalization of an agreement. If these reports are accurate, the negotiation environment could change if Trump has decided to drop those demands or defer them for later negotiations.

Israel-Lebanon questions remain

There are other reasons to treat Trump’s bullish optimism with caution. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was reportedly caught off guard by Trump’s announcement of an agreement. Reports indicate he received the news in the midst of a security discussion on Iran.

Furthermore, Iran has shown no sign of backing away from its position that an end to the war must mean an end to the war on all fronts, including Israel’s invasion of Lebanon. Israel has shown no willingness to withdraw its forces from Lebanon nor to give up the territory it has captured, which amounts to about 10% of Lebanon’s territory.