After invading Russia, Ukraine seems to be setting up an occupation

Ukraine’s seizure of Russian territory risks escalation and backs Biden into a corner.

Ten days ago, Ukraine launched a surprise invasion into the Kursk region of Russia. The total area Ukraine has seized at this point is roughly equal to the Ukrainian territory seized by Russia in 2024. Even days into this invasion, there has been no clear explanation of what objectives, military or otherwise, Ukraine hopes to achieve with this offensive.

Days after the invasion began, Ukraine’s President Zelensky said that “Russia brought the war to our land and should feel what it has done”. This statement does little to clarify any strategic aims. Yesterday, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry belatedly claimed that the goal was to create a “buffer zone” to prevent Russia from launching missile attacks into Ukraine. This may be true, but Russia’s most damaging recent attacks have been launched from the neighboring Belgorod Oblast.

The territory Ukraine has seized includes the town of Sudzha, a major hub for transporting Russian oil and gas to the European Union. Ukraine’s seizure of this territory could disrupt deliveries, which is far more problematic for Ukraine’s EU allies than for Russia.

Today, Ukraine’s military leadership announced that it was setting up a military commandant’s office in the Kursk territory to “ensure order and also all the needs of the local population”. No one is describing Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk as an “occupation”, and Ukraine claims it has no intention of permanently seizing the territory. However, the stated purpose of setting up this commandant’s office seem consistent with the aims of a military occupation.

End game or escalation?

It remains unclear what Ukraine hopes to gain from such an action. Setting up a military occupation is a costly business and one that may be unsustainable given the situation within Ukraine. Russia’s sluggish response to Ukraine’s invasion is certainly an embarrassment for Russian President Vladimir Putin, for whom Russia’s security and sovereignty is a priority. The thought of bruising Putin’s ego may boost Ukrainian morale, but attempts to invade Russia have historically proven to be disastrous for the invader.

A somewhat hopeful interpretation of events is that seizing this territory may put Ukraine in a stronger position to negotiate in peace talks with Russia. However, it seems unlikely that Putin, having put his country on a war footing, will come to the negotiating table while Ukraine is holding part of his territory.

Ukraine’s incursion seems more likely to provoke Putin to escalate, perhaps by taking the fight directly to Ukraine’s allies, including the US. It’s almost certain that Ukraine has used US-supplied military assets in its invasion. Putin has repeatedly warned the US against enabling any Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, and heavily implied he may respond by targeting US interests. This could mean cyber attacks or even supplying weapons to countries that could be used to target the US or its military bases abroad.

Reporting has it that Ukraine’s invasion caught its allies, including President Biden, by surprise. Whether this is true or not is almost academic at this point. Zelensky has pushed Biden for months to “untie his hands” when it comes to using US weapons to strike deep into Russia and Biden has so far refused. Having now seized the initiative, Zelensky has put Biden in the position of having to either, retroactively, give his blessing or appear as if he has lost control of the situation. From Putin’s perspective, either scenario may be cause to escalate.

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Related: Despite attempts to blame Russia, evidence points to Ukraine having blown up Nord Stream pipeline.