Low US missile stockpiles strained as Iran war spreads

On July 29th, Iran apparently carried out a strike on the Muwwafaq Salti US airbase in Jordan. Although no truce had been declared, the US referred to this as a “surprise attack” since the US had not struck Iran in three days. However, the Jordan attack came after the US and Saudi Arabia carried out joint attacks on Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq, killing dozens of fighters, including reportedly some members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. Nevertheless, the attack on Jordan does seem to mark a strategic shift for Iran, which up to now has largely restricted itself to retaliatory attacks.

The US claims all the missiles fired at the base were successfully repelled. On many occasions, the US has claimed that Iranian attacks on US bases were unsuccessful, only for open source satellite imagery to reveal two weeks later that, in fact, the attacks had caused extensive damage. At the outset of the war, several open source satellite imagery firms instituted a policy delaying the release of such imagery by two weeks.

Blame game on Egypt strike

Later on the 29th, a US-owned storage tanker anchored in Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta was struck by a drone, sparking a massive fire in the port.

Currently there is no official confirmation as to who was behind the strike. The US has implied that Iran or one of its proxies (Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraqi militias, or Yemen’s Houthis) were behind the Damietta attack. However, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi released a tweet after the attack implying that it was a “false flag” operation by Israel, presumably designed to push US President Donald Trump to remain committed to the war:

“Egypt is considered a friend and important partner in the region, and its security constitutes an utmost priority for us,” Araghchi wrote. “We must all remain vigilant toward Israeli schemes and ‘false flag’ operations that aim to undermine regional peace. The threat is clear, shared, and fears Muslim solidarity.”

The attack took place hours after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Trump in Washington to urge him to carry out further strikes on Iran. Multiple reports indicate that that meeting was not a complete success from Netanyahu’s standpoint.

Is Iran pressing its advantage?

If one assumes Iran was in fact behind both attacks, it could indicate that Iran is no longer willing to allow Trump to set the pace of the war. Tehran could also be pressing a perceived tactical advantage, as reports indicate that US interceptor missiles have been drastically depleted over the past six months.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (a hawkish defense think tank) released an updated estimate of Patriot and THAAD interceptor stocks based on Congressional appropriations and public reporting. CSIS estimates that before the war began on February 28, the US had approximately 2,330 Patriot missiles and about 452 THAAD missiles. They now estimate the US has between 759-827 Patriots and 234-278 THAAD missiles.

If Iran continues firing on strategic targets and continues to expand the geographical range of its attacks, this will cause further strain on US defensive capabilities throughout the region. The US military is already being forced to allow some Iranian missiles to go through and picking and choosing what targets are worth expending precious interceptors to defend.

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