Trump faces major inflection point on Iran and Israel

Around 11:00 AM today in Washington, DC, Trump entered a Situation Room meeting to determine his next course of action on the current peace proposal from Iran. A tentative deal between the US and Iran was announced earlier this week, but is awaiting final approval from Trump. Despite saying a decision on the agreement would be announced at the conclusion of that meeting, no decision has been announced hours after the end of the two-hour meeting.

If no agreement is announced as we head into the weekend, there is a possibility that Trump will instead decide to resume full-scale hostilities with Iran, something he has threatened and then backed away from for weeks. Trump seems to prefer taking such drastic steps over the weekend to avoid immediately rattling the markets. If the US does renew hostilities, Tehran has promised “utter ruin” and said the conflict would spread “far beyond the region”.

Dire Straits

In recent talks, Tehran has insisted that the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz must end before broader issues pertaining to its nuclear program (a priority for Trump) and other issues central to Washington’s goals can be meaningfully discussed. Weekslong dueling blockades by Iran and the US have caused economic strife in Iran, in the US, and throughout the world.

What, if anything, the US and Iran have tentatively agreed with respect to the Strait is unclear, but rhetoric from the two sides remains far apart. Iran intends to continue collecting tolls (or “fees” as they prefer to call them) from ships passing through the Strait as part of a joint-administration plan with Oman. Trump has insisted that the Strait must be opened without fees or tolls and even threatened this week to “blow up” US ally Oman if it cooperated with Iran.

Another indication of the US stance on Iran’s administration of the Strait comes in the form of sanctions newly announced by the Department of the Treasury on the fledgling Iranian agency charged with its operation. In a statement, Iran’s Persian Gulf ⁠Strait Authority (PGSA) admonished the US: “You failed to gain control of the Strait of Hormuz through warfare and diplomacy, and you will not achieve it through sanctions either”.

Will Trump rein in Israel?

Iran has insisted that a peace agreement should apply to all Middle Eastern fronts, including in Israel’s invasion and bombing campaign in Lebanon. If Trump ultimately decides to embrace a new peace proposal with Iran, it will also necessitate some decisive action by Trump to curtail Israel’s military aggressions against its neighbors.

At every point when a deal or even a tentative deal between the US and Iran has been announced, Israel has undermined it by escalating militarily, particularly in Lebanon. When the US-Iran ceasefire was announced on April 7, Israel responded the following day by carrying out deadly bombings in Lebanon that killed hundreds in a matter of minutes. Earlier this week when news of the new tentative deal was announced (and when an draft of the deal was shown to Israeli officials), Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded by ordering an expanded campaign in Lebanon and the military seizure of 70% of Gaza, in violation of an existing peace agreement with Hamas.

Sources in Netanyahu’s circle have indicated that Netanyahu views Trump’s next move with Iran as having existential consequences for Netanyahu’s long political career, much of which has been defined by pushing the US to confront Iran.

Trump has sought to give Netanyahu a smaller face saving “win” by insisting that the Iran deal should come with more Arab countries signing on to the Abraham Accords and normalizing relationships with Israel. However, Arab leaders are not taking this demand seriously as closer relations with Israel are not politically tenable for them at this moment.